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Market Likely to Correct Post Today’s 1H14 Window Dressing

Blue chips on Bursa Malaysia slipped into profit-taking correction mode late last week, reversing earlier first-half window-dressing gains due to increased geopolitical concern over Iraq and downward revision to United States economic growth. Sentiment was adversely affected by comments from a US Federal Reserve official on the possibility of raising interest rates by the end of the first quarter of next year, as the US jobless rate may fall below six per cent and inflation is likely to rise back to two per cent later this year.

For the week, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) slipped 4.79 points, or 0.25 per cent, to 1,880.93, with gas in Tenaga Nasional Bhd (+26 sen) and Sime Darby (+14 sen) overshadowed by losses in Public Bank Bhd (-64 sen), Genting Bhd (-18 sen) and Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (-21 sen). Average daily traded volume and value last week was flat at 1.71 billion shares and RM2.01 billion, compared with the 1.72 billion shares and RM1.78 billion average
respectively, the previous week.

 

FBMKLCI Performance & Earnings Growth vs. Other Markets:

FBMKLCI_preformance_growth

The benchmark index took the cue from Wall Street’s record high performance and hit a new high of 1,892.33 last week. The surge was supported by an appreciation in TNB’s share price after news about MyPower Corp’s recommendation to the government to stay on course on fuel cost pass-through mechanism (FCPT) and utilise savings from power purchase agreementto subsidise tariff hike stoked speculation on potential hike in electricity tariff.The tariff is supposed to be adjusted every 6 months, which means the revised tariff should come into effect tomorrow.

With crude oil pricon an uptrend since last November and above US$100 (RM320) a barrel in recent weeks, the government could be hard- pressed to pursue an electricity tariff hike in the end-June review to reduce subsidy burden. More so with prospects of it rising further cannot be discounted with the insurgence in Iraq spreading to the southern region and tensions in Ukraine.

Nonetheless, with the start of fasting period for Muslims yesterday and the Hari Raya Aidilfitri festival next month, a decision to raise the electricity tariff and even fuel prices now may be deemed as an untimely move. This could be followed by a 25 basis points hike in Overnight Policy Rate by Bank Negara Malaysia in its September meeting.

The power sector reform is positive for Tenaga and should contribute to further appreciation in its share price, which is still deemed undervalued vis-à-vis regional peers. Our base case scenario presently values the stock at RM13.96 based on CY15 PER of 15x, given the earnings volatility arising from fluctuation of fuels price. Assuming FCPT is implemented as planned, a key risk to earnings will diminish and will entice us to value stock on teh DFC basis. This will raise our value to RM15.70 (+12.5%).

 

The current underlying momentum points to further cost pressure to overall corporate earnings and raises doubts about the sustainability of the current uptrend in FBM KLCI due to its lofty valuation and unexciting single-digit earnings growth this year and next year vis-à-vis regional peers. The inflow of foreign funds since last April has absorbed selling from local institutional funds and contributed to the current uptrend. Nonetheless, the total outflow of slightly over RM2 billion year-to-date is small compared to net cumulative inflow of RM16.1 billion in the last two years. Any sharp reversal in foreign fund flows will have a dampening effect on the index.

With corporate earnings under pressure, it all depends on how well the central bank is going to manage interest rate hike expectations to prevent any sudden fund outflows, especially if there are indications of US intererates rising sooner-than-expected. In the interim period, ride the liquidity wave while it lasts

 

fbmklci_wordlcup

 

As for this week, anticipate the FBM KLCI to recover some lost ground today as a final touch to 1H14 window-dressing but mild corrections could ensue for the rest of the week in the absence of fresh catalyst. Historically, post-FIFA World Cup period and the third-quarter have not been favourable for our equity market. Eight of the 15 or 53.3% of the indices being tracked corrected in the 1-month period post World Cup. Average contraction in the indices during the last 9 World Cup events was -1.8%, which means most of the indices gave back their gains and were back to pre-World Cup levels. The probability of correction in FBMKLCI 1-nth post World Cup is 55.6% and the average historical correction was 3.5%. If we remove the outlier in 1998 due to Asian financial crisis, the fall was only 1.1%. So, anticipate some correction in the benchmark index befire it rebounds in the final quarter of the year.

 

by TA Securities

Malaysia – CPI : Core Inflation Improved

Malaysia Core inflation improved to 3.1% yoy despite higher transport costs


Malaysia’s headline inflation rate, as measured by consumer price index (CPI), slowed further to 3.2% yoy in May, after holding at a high of 3.5% for two straight months from February-March 2014 (3.4% in April). This was in line with market expectations. Food prices, which account for 30.3% of the total CPI basket, slowed significantly from 3.6% yoy in April to 3.3% in May, due to improvements in prices of vegetables, biscuits & cereals, as well as fish & seafood.

Core inflation, excluding food prices, also improved from 3.3% yoy in April to 3.1% in May, due mainly to declines in prices of clothing & footwear and cost of communication. However, costs of transport rose from 5.3% yoy in April to 5.5% in May, and may likely continue to trend higher if the Government resume its subsidy rationalisation programme by raising the country’s domestic fuel prices.Some market observers believe that there is a possibility Government may ithdraw subsidies for fuel prices further in 3Q14.

However, we expect any adjustment to the Government’s control retail petrol prices (RON95 & diesel) will likely to be gradual despite recent rise in global oil prices due to the Iraq crisis. The International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed, was recently quoted by the press, saying that related government agencies would continue to monitor price rises and keep the country’s inflation under control to ease the people's burden. We expect food prices to rise slightly in 3Q14 due to the Hari Raya festivity, but the magnitude of price increases will be manageable, as some essential food items are being controlled during festive seasons.

On a month-to-month comparison, the headline inflation increased from a flat rate in April to 0.1% mom in May, attributed to the 0.5% rise in housing & utilities cost. On a cumulative basis, inflation rate increased by an average of 3.4% yoy in January-May 2014, significantly higher than 1.6% in the same period of the previous year. In the months ahead, given the expectation of subsidy rationalisation, we maintain our forecast of inflation rate averaging around 3.5-4.0% in 2014 (2.1% in 2013), at the upper end of the official government’sforecast range of between 3.0-4.0%.

 

Fig 1: Consumer price index (CPI), May 2014 (click to enlarge)

Malaysia_CPI

On the monetary policy front, despite economic activities improving on the back of domestic demand and exports, we expect the stance of monetary policy to remain accommodative, where Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is likely to maintain its overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3% in the next MPC meeting on 10 July 2014. However, with BNM cautioning that “the current monetary and financial conditions could lead to a broader build up in economic and financial imbalances,” in reference to the currently adopted accommodative monetary policy with prolonged low interest rate conditions, we believe some normalisation of overnight policy rate (OPR) in late 2H2014, where the policy rate could rise by 25bps from the current 3.0% to 3.25% in the BNM MPC meeting on 18 September 2014.

 

by Affin Bank

 

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